THE NUCLEAR DEBACLE

THE NUCLEAR DEBACLE

amidst the hype created by the ostensible nuclear deal done between the US and india, the intricacies have been avoided. Foreign secretary categorically stated that ‘the deal is done’. Media has hyped the conclusions even before the joint press conference made public. What is one to infer and conclude about the so called historic deal. Is it done? Is it worthwhile to undertake deals like these where the developed world is finding ways to part from it? The questions are legitimate and important concerning the dangers that the issue possesses and is effects on india.

Section 17b and 46 are well known that I am not going to go about here. I am going to about some interesting pieces that I heard in a debate today. First, is the US really very keen to ouch through the deal as is known. The answer is tilted towards no. the reason is that originally the deal that was concluded was by the republicans, the democrats on the other hand are very law going persons. They cannot at any point break the laws that they themselves has set. Democrats also are not famous india-loving people. The lawyers of the US that handle the nuclear cases are in no sense ordinary lawyers. They charge astronomical amounts even for an hour. They will only relent till they extract the last pound from the coffers. So the US will be weary about this.

Second is about the US’ own domestic policies. Their own nuclear industry is going down at the moment. Mostly aare private players like hitachi, Westinghouse etc. the US has not installed a single power reactor sicne thirty years and is another example of a developed nation that is shying away from the nuclear energy business. Why so? I’m sure all know the reasons. In fact it plans to reduce the already set and functioning reactors and instead opt for renewable sources which are clean, relatively risk-free and future promising. India’s need for nuclear energy is paramount and reasons we know.

Concerning the liability law and those 2 sections. Well, they were passed by the consent of both then ruling party and the opposition party, in the wake of india’s horrific memories of Bhopal gas tragedy. Without diluting those laws any foreign collaboration is not possible. Even the Indian manufacturers Larsen and toubro etc. have categorically denied to supply any reactors until those sections are fixed. India has superior technology itself. The advanced pressurized heavy water reactor technology in india is well developed and india does not requires any foreign collaboration if the scale meets up the demand. If india wants to start in this area it should first negotiate the deal with domestic suppliers. One open suggestion can be to utilize this technology by selling and gaining enormous money. I am sure this may have come up in the past as well, but do not understand the reason as to why we have hesitated to leverage ourselves where piles and piles of cash are awaiting us. Probably we are trying to project ourselves as the responsible nation that does not indulges itself in proliferation exercises. If this is the case then it should know the Chinese case that even after signing NPT it has proliferated technologies to irresponsible state actors. The US does not object to ti there. Practicability and self interest are guide to the conduct and not idealism, that india knows very well, but still there is some or the other reasins for sitting back at the haunches and watching the players play the match in the global arena.

India has planned an insurance pool of somewhere about 1500 crores that covers the liability of the operators. I think this money is not at all sufficient. Moreover if one really wants ti insure through the taxpayers money, it can do so to the domestic suppliers. Why insure a foreign company when it has no humanitarian interests and is hell bent to extract money out of everything, not caring about the human lives that may be at risk.

France and Russia also have been reluctant to supply. But there was some vulnerability in their firmness indicating their willingness to go through despite the 2 sections. This again points to another question- why is india pushing through it so much hard. Can it not negotiate more with them. The kudankulams are working despite the liability law. I am sure the current depreciation of the economy of Russia and weaknesses of france can be utilized for the current moment to break the ice.

Given all this, my personal judgement says that the current break through deal, that is being spoken off  is a symbolic gesture to indicate the closeness of the countries and also commitment on the part of the governments that they have delivered something substantive. The defence deals are through anyhow. I think defence was the major concern for the two countries. US wants to sell and gather huge monies and contracts and india wants to boost up its manufacturing as a part of  ‘make in india’ campaign. Whatever be the final internal breakthroughs, one thing is clear that the two nations have come close and indicated the convergence of the two largest democracies’ mutual interests in various fields. Symbolism is there, sign of any substance will be soon be deciphered.